Record-Breaking El Niño Expected to Unleash Extreme Weather
Record-Breaking El Niño Expected to Unleash Extreme Weather
PacificOcean · Published Jul 24, 2026
A super El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, with a 90% likelihood of becoming the strongest in 150 years, according to Berkeley Earth (New Scientist, 2026-07-23). Forecast models predict sea surface temperature anomalies peaking at 3.6°C (6.5°F) above average, surpassing the 2015-16 record of 2.75°C (4.95°F). This event is progressing faster than any previous El Niño, with central-eastern Pacific temperatures already 2.1°C (3.78°F) above average. The phenomenon, which peaks in late autumn or winter, is expected to drive global temperatures to unprecedented levels, potentially exceeding 1.7°C (3.06°F) above pre-industrial averages in
The event is also likely to exacerbate extreme weather patterns worldwide, including droughts, floods, and wildfires.

Impact & Risks

The El Niño is expected to cause significant disruptions globally. Southern China may face heavy rainfall and flooding, while the northeastern U.S. could experience drier conditions. Conversely, the southern U.S. may see increased rainfall, raising the risk of mudslides. Australia is likely to experience drier conditions, heightening wildfire risks. Droughts are anticipated in India, southern and central Africa, and parts of Central and South America, potentially impacting agriculture and commodity prices. Ecosystems, including coral reefs, are also at risk due to warming waters and bleaching events.

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