El Niño Strengthens with Over 90% Chance of Very Strong Event in Late 2026
El Niño Strengthens with Over 90% Chance of Very Strong Event in Late 2026
US · Published Sep 11, 2026
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has reported a significant strengthening of El Niño conditions, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +3.0°C (+5.4°F) in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
The Niña-3.4 index reached +1.8°C (+3.2°F), while the Niña-1+2 index climbed to +3.4°C (+6.1°F).

Impact & Risks

A very strong El Niño event could lead to significant global weather impacts, including increased rainfall and flooding in some regions, while others may experience drought conditions. Enhanced convection and rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific could disrupt weather patterns worldwide, potentially affecting agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. Suppressed rainfall over Indonesia may exacerbate drought conditions in the region. The CPC warns that while the likelihood of El Niño-related impacts is high, they are not guaranteed and will vary by region. Stakeholders should monitor updates closely to prepare for potential disruptions.

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