El Niño Intensifies as Arizona Monsoon Season Ends
El Niño Intensifies as Arizona Monsoon Season Ends
US · Published Sep 23, 2026
• The 2026 monsoon season in Arizona, which officially ends on September 30, has been drier than usual, with Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport recording only 1.41 inches of rain compared to the seasonal average of 2.43 inches. Despite this, isolated to scattered showers are forecast for eastern Arizona through midweek, with a 30% chance of rain in Phoenix on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, meteorologists are closely monitoring the intensifying El Niño pattern, which was declared on June
• This climate phenomenon, characterized by warmer Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, is expected to bring increased atmospheric moisture to the Southwest, potentially leading to a wetter fall and winter season.

Impact & Risks

The drier-than-normal monsoon season has implications for Arizona's water supply, as reduced rainfall impacts reservoirs and snowpack levels. El Niño, while increasing storm opportunities, may also elevate temperatures, potentially reducing snowpack accumulation at lower elevations. This could affect water availability in the Valley. Additionally, flash flooding remains a risk during isolated storms, as seen in last week's heavy rainfall in parts of metro Phoenix.

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