IMD Predicts Strengthening El Nino, Below-Normal September Rainfall
IMD Predicts Strengthening El Nino, Below-Normal September Rainfall
IN · Published Sep 1, 2026
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that El Nino conditions are expected to strengthen during the remainder of the 2026 southwest monsoon season.
Rainfall in September is projected to be below normal, at 91% or less of the long-period average.

Impact & Risks

The below-normal rainfall could exacerbate water scarcity and impact agricultural activities, particularly in regions like Punjab, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and southern West Bengal, which have already experienced deficient rainfall since June. Southern India, which saw good rainfall in June but scanty precipitation in July and August, may face further challenges. Elevated temperatures could increase heat stress and energy demand. While a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may mitigate some effects, the stronger influence of El Nino could dominate, leading to continued dry conditions in many areas.

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