El Niño 2026: Early Warnings Fail to Reach All Farmers in India
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted a 92% probability of El Niño developing during the 2026 monsoon season, with the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimating a 96% chance of it persisting through winter. This year's El Niño is considered to be in the 'super El Niño' category, comparable to
• IMD's seasonal outlook predicted rainfall at 90% of the long-period average, with a 60% likelihood of a deficit. By September, India experienced a 15% rainfall shortfall, with Rajasthan particularly affected, recording a 21% deficit. Despite early warnings, many farmers, especially those outside institutional networks like Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs), did not receive actionable advisories, leading to significant crop losses in some areas.
Impact & Risks
The 2026 El Niño has led to a significant monsoon deficit, with Rajasthan and Maharashtra among the worst-hit states. In Rajasthan, 21 districts reported deficient rainfall, and Maharashtra declared drought in 265 of its 358 talukas. Farmers without access to institutional support struggled to adapt, relying on traditional knowledge or inaccurate information, resulting in crop failures and financial losses. Conversely, farmers connected to KVKs were better prepared, adjusting their sowing patterns and crop choices based on early warnings. This disparity highlights the risks faced by farmers without access to reliable weather advisories, particularly in drought-prone regions like Rajasthan.
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