Southwest monsoon withdrawal begins amid 15% rainfall deficit
• The southwest monsoon began withdrawing from parts of west Rajasthan on 19 September 2026, slightly later than the usual date of 17 September. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reports a cumulative rainfall deficit of approximately 15% for the season. The southern peninsula has experienced the highest deficit at 28.5%, followed by eastern and northeast India at 25.7%, and northwest India at 9.5%. Central India recorded a smaller deficit of 5.4%. The withdrawal line currently passes through Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi, and Khajuwala in Rajasthan. The complete withdrawal of the monsoon is expected by 15 October
• Dry air is forecast to enter northwest and west India next week, accelerating the withdrawal process.
Impact & Risks
The rainfall deficit poses risks to agriculture and water resources, particularly in regions with significant shortfalls such as the southern peninsula and eastern India. Rajasthan has experienced its lowest rainfall in 16 years, which could exacerbate water scarcity and impact crop yields. The uneven distribution of rainfall across regions and months has already led to a 1.45% reduction in kharif crop sowing compared to last year, with paddy cultivation down by nearly 4%. The anticipated dry air influx may further reduce moisture levels, intensifying the withdrawal process and potentially worsening the situation.
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