El Niño Threatens San Diego With Historic Weather
• San Diego is bracing for a potentially historic El Niño event during the fall and winter of 2026-
• According to NOAA, there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño developing, with a 75% likelihood of it reaching historic strength between October and December. El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters, can significantly alter atmospheric circulation and storm tracks. Past events, such as the 1997-98 El Niño, brought heavy rainfall, flooding, and coastal damage to the region. While NOAA cautions that not all El Niño events produce identical impacts, the current forecast raises concerns about potential severe weather in Southern California. Historical data shows that El Niño can lead to swollen rivers, saturated hillsides, and powerful surf, posing risks to infrastructure and communities.
Impact & Risks
The 1997-98 El Niño serves as a stark reminder of the potential risks. San Diego experienced 17.78 inches of rain that season, about 180% of normal levels, leading to significant flooding. The San Diego River reached 15.1 feet, well above flood stage, inundating roads and properties. Coastal areas suffered extensive damage, with $1.6 million in losses reported in Del Mar alone. Agricultural sectors, including citrus and avocado groves, also faced severe impacts. If the 2026-27 El Niño reaches similar strength, communities across San Diego County could face flooding, erosion, landslides, and infrastructure damage. However, NOAA emphasizes that each El Niño event is unique, and impacts depend on various interacting factors.
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