Arizona Fall Forecast: Cooler Temps, More Rain
• As Arizona transitions into fall, weather forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS), AccuWeather, and The Old Farmer's Almanac offer varying predictions for the season. The fall equinox begins on Tuesday, September 22,
• AccuWeather anticipates temperatures in parts of Arizona to be 1–2°F (0.5–1.1°C) below historical averages from September to October, while southern cities like Sierra Vista and Nogales are expected to remain at historical norms. The NWS and AccuWeather predict above-average precipitation across most of the state, with the NWS estimating a 40–50% probability of increased rainfall. AccuWeather forecasts peak rainfall in September, with precipitation levels reaching 125–149% above normal. However, The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a drier-than-usual fall for most of the state, except for northern-central areas like Sedona, which may experience a warm and wet season.
Impact & Risks
The anticipated above-average rainfall could lead to localized flooding, particularly during September when precipitation is expected to peak. Residents in northern-central Arizona, including areas around Sedona, may experience wetter conditions compared to the rest of the state. Conversely, the drier-than-usual forecast from The Old Farmer's Almanac suggests that some regions may face water scarcity concerns. Temperature fluctuations, with some areas experiencing cooler-than-average conditions and others remaining at historical norms, may impact outdoor activities and agricultural planning.
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