Record-Strength El Niño Could Impact Tahoe Winter
• A historically strong El Niño is forecasted to develop this fall and winter, with the Climate Prediction Center assigning it a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event. The index is expected to exceed 2.5°C between October and December, surpassing all recorded events since
• While the federal winter outlook predicts above-normal precipitation for the Tahoe region from December through February, warmer-than-normal temperatures could lead to rain at higher elevations instead of snow. Experts, including the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab, caution that snowfall outcomes during strong El Niño years are unpredictable, with past seasons showing mixed results ranging from below-average to above-average snowfall totals.
Impact & Risks
The strong El Niño could bring wetter conditions to the Tahoe region, but warmer temperatures may reduce snowfall at higher elevations, potentially impacting ski resorts and water management. Historical data suggests that strong El Niño events have inconsistent effects on Sierra snowfall, making it difficult to predict whether this winter will bring record snow or rain. Additionally, the warm Pacific pattern has raised concerns among salmon biologists, highlighting broader ecological risks.
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