Cyclones in Arabian Sea: Rising Risks During Peak Monsoon
Cyclones in Arabian Sea: Rising Risks During Peak Monsoon
Global · Published Oct 31, 2026
• Cyclogenesis during peak monsoon months in the Arabian Sea is rare but increasing due to warming sea surface temperatures.
• Learn about the environmental factors driving this trend and its implications for India.

Environmental Factors Driving Cyclogenesis

The development of cyclones in the northern Arabian Sea during peak monsoon is influenced by several factors. Anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), elevated Genesis Potential Index (GPI), enhanced mid-tropospheric moisture, and reduced vertical wind shear create a favourable environment for cyclone formation. Studies have shown that the Arabian Sea has been warming at an accelerated pace, with SST anomalies reaching up to 2.1°C in some cases. This warming trend is altering the thermodynamic conditions, making cyclogenesis more likely.

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