NOAA Predicts Potentially Historic Super El Niño by Fall
NOAA Predicts Potentially Historic Super El Niño by Fall
US · Published Jul 9, 2026
NOAA has increased the likelihood of a historically strong El Niño developing by this fall, with an 81% chance of it ranking among the strongest on record.
El Niño, a phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is characterized by above-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

Impact & Risks

The development of a strong El Niño is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased wind shear caused by a robust subtropical jet stream. This could reduce the risk of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin but may lead to heightened activity in the Pacific, including major hurricanes and typhoons. Additionally, El Niño conditions often influence winter weather patterns, potentially bringing active weather to both the East and West Coasts of the United States. Communities in hurricane-prone areas should remain vigilant despite the reduced forecast for Atlantic storms.

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