El Niño Watch Issued: 82% Likelihood of Onset by Summer 2026
• The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño Watch, indicating an 82% chance of El Niño conditions developing between May and July
• Current observations show near-average sea surface temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific, with the Niño-3.4 index at +0.4°C. Subsurface temperatures have been significantly above average, and westerly wind anomalies have been observed in the western Pacific. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predicts that El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27, with a 96% likelihood of continuation into early
• However, there remains uncertainty about the peak strength of this event.
Why It's Important?
The emergence of El Niño could lead to significant global weather disruptions. Historically, strong El Niño events have been associated with droughts in Southeast Asia and Australia, flooding in South America, and warmer winters in North America. While the exact impacts of this event remain uncertain, the potential for extreme weather conditions highlights the need for preparedness in vulnerable regions.
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