Super El Niño Strengthens, Global Impacts Expected
• A very strong El Niño event is currently developing, with sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific reaching approximately 3.0°C (5.4°F) above normal as of mid-September 2026, according to the International Research Institute at Columbia University. NOAA has issued an El Niño Advisory, indicating a greater than 90% chance of the event persisting through the fall and winter of 2026-
• This phenomenon, often referred to as a 'Super El Niño,' is expected to significantly alter global weather patterns, including increased rainfall in the Gulf States, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic regions of the U.S., and warmer-than-average conditions in northern states. Historically, such events have also calmed the Atlantic hurricane season while intensifying activity in the Pacific.
Impact & Risks
The ongoing Super El Niño is likely to bring wetter-than-normal conditions to the southern U.S., potentially increasing the risk of flooding in vulnerable areas. Conversely, northern states may experience warmer winters, which could impact snow-dependent industries. Globally, regions like Peru and Ecuador may face heavy rainfall and flooding, while areas such as Indonesia and Australia could see drought and heightened fire risks. The event may also contribute to record-breaking global temperatures, as El Niño adds heat to an already warming planet.
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