El Niño Likely to Develop by Summer 2026, Continuing Through Winter
• The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño Watch, indicating an 82% likelihood of El Niño conditions emerging between May and July
• Current observations show ENSO-neutral conditions, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central equatorial Pacific. The latest Niña-3.4 index value is +0.4°C, while other indices, such as Niña-4 and Niña-1+2, are at +0.5°C and +1.0°C, respectively. Subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific have been significantly above average for six consecutive months, and westerly wind anomalies have been observed in the western and central Pacific. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predicts El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27, with a 96% chance of continuation during December 2026 to February 2027.
Why It's Important?
El Niño events can significantly influence global weather patterns, including increased rainfall in some regions and drought in others. While the strength of the upcoming El Niño remains uncertain, with no categorization exceeding a 37% chance, stronger events typically result in more pronounced impacts. Potential risks include disruptions to agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems, as well as heightened risks of extreme weather events such as floods and heatwaves. The CPC advises monitoring seasonal outlooks for specific regional impacts.
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