El Niño Strengthens, Historic Event Likely at 83%
• The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has reported a significant strengthening of El Niño conditions, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeding +4.0°C. The Niño-3.4 index has reached +2.1°C, and the probability of a historically strong El Niño event between October and December 2026 is now estimated at 83%. This would mark one of the strongest El Niño events since
• Subsurface ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific have also risen sharply, with anomalies exceeding +10.0°C at depth. These developments indicate a coupled ocean-atmosphere system that has intensified further through September 2026, as detailed in NOAA's October ENSO Diagnostics Discussion.
Impact & Risks
A historically strong El Niño could have widespread global impacts, including disruptions to weather patterns, agriculture, and ecosystems. For the cocoa industry, the forecast suggests adequate rainfall for the current West African main crop, but potential risks to the mid-crop for the 2026/27 season due to reduced rainfall. This could lead to supply shortages and price volatility in the global cocoa market. Additionally, extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves are more likely in various regions, potentially affecting millions of people and ecosystems worldwide.
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