Super El Niño Likely to Break Records in 2026
Super El Niño Likely to Break Records in 2026
US · Published Sep 25, 2026
• The National Weather Service forecasts a greater-than-90% chance that the current El Niño will intensify into a 'super El Niño' this year, with sea surface temperatures rising by +2.5°C above normal between October and December
• This event could surpass all previously recorded El Niño events in strength. El Niño, a natural climate cycle occurring every two to seven years, is characterized by warming sea surface temperatures, which transfer heat into the atmosphere. Scientists warn that this phenomenon could lead to 2027 becoming the hottest year on record, with global average temperatures potentially reaching 1.7–1.8°C above pre-industrial levels. August 2026 has already been recorded as the warmest August in history, highlighting the intensifying impact of climate change on global weather patterns.

Impact & Risks

The anticipated super El Niño could lead to significant disruptions worldwide. In the U.S., warmer winters in the north and wetter, cooler winters in the south are expected, increasing the risk of flash floods. Globally, the event may cause failed harvests, infrastructure damage from flooding, and financial losses exceeding a trillion dollars. Additionally, the warmer ocean temperatures could amplify hurricane activity in the Central and Eastern Pacific. Scientists also warn of increased disease burdens and heightened risks of extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent and severe due to human-induced climate change.

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