El Niño Strengthens with Over 90% Chance of Very Strong Event in Fall and Winter 2026-27
El Niño Strengthens with Over 90% Chance of Very Strong Event in Fall and Winter 2026-27
US · Published Sep 9, 2026
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released its latest update on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), indicating that El Niño conditions are strengthening. According to the report, there is now a greater than 90% likelihood of a very strong El Niño event occurring during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-
This development is based on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) and Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends, which show significant warming in the equatorial Pacific. The CPC's findings are part of their monthly ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which provides updates on the evolution and predictions of ENSO events. (Source: Climate Prediction Center, 8 September 2026, 08:00 GMT)

Impact & Risks

A very strong El Niño event could have widespread impacts on global weather patterns. Historically, such events have been associated with increased rainfall in some regions, such as the southern United States, and drought conditions in others, including parts of Southeast Asia and Australia. These changes can disrupt agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. In the U.S., the upcoming fall and winter seasons may see above-average precipitation in the southern states, while northern regions could experience warmer-than-average temperatures. The potential for extreme weather events, such as flooding and heatwaves, also increases during strong El Niño episodes.

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