NOAA Predicts Potentially Historic El Nino Event
NOAA Predicts Potentially Historic El Nino Event
US · Published Aug 14, 2026
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a forecast indicating a potentially historic El Nino event developing in the coming months. According to NOAA, there is a 69% chance that this El Nino will surpass the strength of all previous events recorded since
The phenomenon, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is expected to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere's fall and winter seasons. NOAA has expressed over 90% confidence that this will be a 'very strong' El Nino, which could significantly influence global weather patterns, hurricane activity, and temperatures. The current event is already the second strongest on record for this time of year, trailing only the 1997 El Nino.

Impact & Risks

A very strong El Nino could lead to significant weather impacts across the globe. In the United States, it may result in warmer-than-average winter temperatures in the northern regions, increased snowfall in the mid-Atlantic, and wetter conditions in the southern states. Conversely, drier conditions are expected in the northern Rockies and parts of the Midwest. Hawaii may experience drier weather and an elevated risk of wildfires, while Alaska could see warmer and drier winters with reduced snowpack. Globally, El Nino is likely to contribute to record-high temperatures, exacerbating the effects of climate change. However, NOAA cautions that not all regions will experience typical El Nino impacts, as weather patterns can vary significantly.

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