Unprecedented Early Polar Vortex Split in November 2026
Unprecedented Early Polar Vortex Split in November 2026
US · Published Nov 13, 2026
• A rare and early sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event has occurred, causing the polar vortex to split into two lobes in early November
• This event, triggered by high-pressure systems over Alaska and Scandinavia, is the earliest recorded SSW since 1958, breaking the previous record by over two weeks. The polar vortex, which typically remains stable during this time of year, was disrupted by atmospheric waves amplified by a strong El Niño. This phenomenon has led to a reversal of west-to-east stratospheric winds and a significant warming of the polar stratosphere, with temperatures increasing by over 50°C (90°F) in a single day. The event is notable for its timing and the unusual split of the polar vortex, which is more commonly associated with La Niña winters.

Impact & Risks

The early polar vortex split could lead to short-term weather impacts, including colder-than-average conditions in the eastern U.S. and Europe, and warmer-than-average temperatures in the Arctic. However, the full extent of the impacts remains uncertain due to the unprecedented timing of this event. Typically, SSWs weaken the polar jet stream, allowing cold Arctic air to move southward, but the early timing may limit the availability of frigid Arctic air. While the North Atlantic Oscillation has shifted to a negative phase, it is expected to return to neutral by late November, potentially muting the long-term effects of this SSW.

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