90% Chance of Strong El Niño This Winter
90% Chance of Strong El Niño This Winter
US · Published Sep 18, 2026
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has confirmed a 90% likelihood of a very strong El Niño event developing by the end of 2026, with a 70% chance of it being record-breaking.
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific near Peru have risen by over 2°C (3.5–4°F) above average due to weakened trade winds.

Impact & Risks

The Pacific Northwest is likely to experience a warmer and potentially drier winter, which could lead to a below-average mountain snowpack for the fifth consecutive year. This would negatively impact water resources for agriculture, hydropower, and drinking water, while also increasing the risk of wildfires in 2027. However, El Niño generally brings less hazardous winter weather to the region compared to La Niña or Neutral conditions. Despite this, occasional extreme weather events, such as snowstorms, remain possible.

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