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Northern Kansas Wheat Yield Projected Below Average Amid Drought Stress

Global · Published May 13, 2026

• Crop scouts participating in the Wheat Quality Council's annual tour of Kansas have reported a significant decline in projected wheat yields for the northern half of the state. The survey, which examined 187 fields between Manhattan and Colby, estimated an average yield of 38.3 bushels per acre (bpa) for hard red winter wheat. This figure is notably below the five-year tour average of 45.7 bpa and last year's estimate of 50.5 bpa. Severe drought conditions, coupled with extreme weather events such as freezes and high temperatures, have caused the wheat plants to mature prematurely, impacting both yield and protein quality. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast Kansas' 2026 wheat harvest at 214.6 million bushels, marking the second-smallest crop since

• Observations from the tour revealed widespread drought stress, with yellowed and stunted wheat stands across the region.

Why It's Important?

The drought and extreme weather conditions are expected to have significant economic and agricultural impacts. Kansas, the leading U.S. winter wheat producer, is facing reduced yields and lower crop quality, which could affect grain traders, millers, and exporters. Neighboring Nebraska is also experiencing severe challenges, with a projected 36% abandonment rate for winter wheat acres—the highest since 1917. Farmers in both states are grappling with financial losses and are increasingly reliant on crop insurance to mitigate the damage. The USDA's latest ratings show only 1% of Kansas' wheat crop in excellent condition, underscoring the severity of the situation.