Atlantic Tropics Show Signs of Activity by Late August
• The Atlantic tropics are beginning to show signs of increased activity as the peak hurricane season approaches. According to the FOX Forecast Center, computer models predict that an area of low pressure may develop offshore Africa by Sunday, potentially evolving into a tropical depression or storm next week. This coincides with the start of the most active period in the Atlantic, beginning August
• While the National Hurricane Center does not anticipate tropical development in the next week, long-range models suggest that the current lull in activity may soon end. If a tropical storm forms, it will be named Dolly. However, the brewing Super El Niño and strong upper-level winds across the Caribbean may still hinder development.
Impact & Risks
The potential tropical disturbance is expected to form in the far eastern Atlantic, away from land. If it develops, it is likely to curve northward, avoiding significant impacts to populated areas. However, the situation remains dynamic, and any changes in the system's trajectory or intensity could alter the risk profile. The Super El Niño and hostile wind shear may limit the storm's development, but the disturbance's hearty appearance on forecast models warrants close monitoring.
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