India Faces Below-Normal Monsoon, Threatening Rice Production
India Faces Below-Normal Monsoon, Threatening Rice Production
IN · Published Nov 9, 2026
• India, the world's largest rice producer and exporter, is experiencing a below-normal monsoon season, with rainfall reported to be nearly 13% below average so far this year.
• This has raised concerns about the country's rice production, which is expected to decline for the first time in a decade and by the largest margin in nearly 20 years.

Impact & Risks

The below-normal monsoon has significantly impacted rice yields, with industry officials predicting the steepest production drop in two decades. This could lead to higher rice prices, affecting both domestic consumers and international markets, as India is a major global rice exporter. The government has also expressed concerns about potential hoarding and black market activities, which could exacerbate supply shortages and price volatility. Southern states, including Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana, have been authorised to impose stock limits on rice and paddy to curb these risks.

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