The below-average monsoon rainfall could adversely affect India's agricultural output, potentially leading to reduced crop yields and higher food prices. This is particularly concerning as the country is already grappling with inflation exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Iran war. Historically, El Niño years have often resulted in severe droughts in India, causing widespread crop damage and necessitating restrictions on grain exports. The reduced rainfall may also strain water resources, impacting both rural and urban populations. Farmers, who depend on monsoon rains for irrigation, are likely to be the most affected, with potential ripple effects on the broader economy.