The ongoing El Nino event poses dual risks and benefits for India's wheat production. While above-average rainfall may enhance crop growth, it also raises the possibility of localised flooding in key wheat-growing areas. Farmers in regions prone to flooding may face challenges in safeguarding their crops. Additionally, higher-altitude areas may experience snowfall, which could protect overwintering crops but also delay planting schedules. The final production figures will be heavily influenced by weather conditions through April-May 2027.