The rainfall deficit and El Nino conditions are likely to affect agricultural productivity, particularly in states reliant on imports for food, such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu. A sharp decline in wheat production could lead to a food crisis, impacting India's ability to feed its population of 1.48 billion. Additionally, the global fertiliser supply chain, heavily reliant on exports through the Strait of Hormuz, faces disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, further straining food production. Vulnerable populations may face increased food insecurity due to rising prices and uneven distribution of food resources.