IMD Predicts Warmer and Drier November Due to Strong El Nino
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across most parts of India for November
• This is attributed to very strong El Nino conditions currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which are expected to persist through November and December. Rainfall is likely to be below normal in most regions, with the country as a whole expected to receive only 77% of its long-period average rainfall for the month. Some areas in central, northwest, and Northeast India may experience normal to above-normal rainfall. South Peninsular India is also projected to receive 77% of its long-period average rainfall, which is approximately 118.7 mm for November.
Impact & Risks
The warmer and drier conditions could lead to increased heat stress and water scarcity in many parts of India. Agricultural activities may be affected, particularly in regions dependent on November rainfall for winter crops. Areas with below-normal rainfall may face challenges in water resource management, while regions with above-normal rainfall could experience localised flooding. The strong El Nino phenomenon is known to disrupt global weather patterns, potentially exacerbating these impacts.
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