Super El Niño Predicted to Reshape Weather in Asia's Major Cities
Super El Niño Predicted to Reshape Weather in Asia's Major Cities
ID · Published Aug 20, 2026
A record-breaking 'super' El Niño is expected to significantly alter weather patterns across 12 major cities in South and Southeast Asia, according to research by WaterAid and universities in Bristol and Cardiff (The Independent, 2026-08-19). The event, driven by extreme sea surface temperature anomalies, could reach up to 3.6°C above normal, surpassing the previous record of 2.75°C set in 2015-
Cities like Jakarta, Bangkok, and Mumbai are likely to experience severe droughts, while others, including Shanghai and Colombo, may face increased flooding. The unprecedented scale of this El Niño leaves the magnitude of its impacts uncertain, but regions prone to drought or flooding are expected to experience intensified conditions.

Impact & Risks

The super El Niño poses severe risks to water security, agriculture, and public health in Asia's largest cities. Drought-prone cities like Jakarta and Mumbai may face prolonged dry spells, threatening water supplies and food production. Conversely, cities like Shanghai and Colombo could experience extreme flooding, leading to water contamination and disease outbreaks. The event also threatens global agricultural output, with potential losses of up to $342 billion, impacting food security for millions, particularly smallholder farmers.

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