El Nino Intensifies, Threatens India's Winter Crop Season
El Nino Intensifies, Threatens India's Winter Crop Season
IN · Published Oct 6, 2026
• India's winter crop season is under significant stress due to a combination of below-normal monsoon rainfall, depleted soil moisture, and a strengthening El Nino phenomenon. The southwest monsoon ended with a 12.6% rainfall deficit, marking the fourth-lowest monsoon since
• Regions such as East and Northeast India and the southern peninsula experienced rainfall deficits of 25% and 24%, respectively. Soil moisture levels as of August 20 were below the decadal average in key states, including Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Additionally, September recorded the highest average maximum temperature (32.05°C) since 1901, further exacerbating moisture stress. Reservoir levels are also below last year's levels, with southern states like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka particularly affected. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures for October, adding to the challenges for rabi crop sowing.

Impact & Risks

The moisture deficit and high temperatures are expected to severely impact rainfed farming areas, which lack irrigation infrastructure. Crops such as pulses and coarse cereals, which rely heavily on residual soil moisture, are particularly vulnerable. States like Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Rajasthan, which are major producers of gram, jowar, and mustard, could face reduced sowing areas and lower yields. Farmers in these regions may need to delay planting or switch to less water-intensive crops. The overall foodgrain output, which heavily depends on the rabi season, is at risk, potentially affecting food security and market prices. Irrigated crops like wheat are less exposed but may still face challenges if water availability continues to decline.

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