Arizona Fall Forecast: Above-Average Rain Expected
Arizona Fall Forecast: Above-Average Rain Expected
US · Published Sep 22, 2026
As Arizona transitions into fall, weather forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS), AccuWeather, and The Old Farmer's Almanac present varying predictions for the season. The fall equinox begins on Tuesday, September 22,
According to the NWS, Arizona has a 33% to 40% probability of experiencing above-average temperatures statewide, while AccuWeather predicts temperatures will be one to two degrees below historical averages in some areas, with southern cities like Sierra Vista and Nogales expected to remain at historical norms. Rainfall predictions also differ, with the NWS and AccuWeather forecasting above-average precipitation, particularly in September, when rainfall could reach 125% to 149% above normal. In contrast, The Old Farmer's Almanac anticipates a drier-than-usual fall for most of the state, except for northern-central areas like Sedona, which may see increased precipitation.

Impact & Risks

The anticipated above-average rainfall could lead to localized flooding, particularly during September, when precipitation levels are expected to peak. Residents in areas prone to flooding should remain vigilant. The warmer-than-average temperatures predicted by the NWS and The Old Farmer's Almanac may prolong the summer heat, potentially impacting outdoor activities and increasing energy demands for cooling. However, AccuWeather's forecast of slightly cooler temperatures in some regions may provide relief. The variability in predictions highlights the need for residents to stay updated on local weather conditions as the season progresses.

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