The rainfall deficit during the southwest monsoon has already impacted kharif crop sowing, contributing to food inflation. The northeast monsoon, while accounting for only a quarter of India's annual rainfall, is crucial for agriculture and water resources in southern peninsular regions. The presence of a strong El Niño this year adds uncertainty to rainfall patterns, as it can influence cyclonic circulations unpredictably. Historical data shows that El Niño years have sometimes led to vigorous northeast monsoons, but not always. Authorities are advised to prepare for potential extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall and flooding, which could disrupt infrastructure and displace communities.