El Niño is typically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India, which can lead to reduced crop yields and water stress. However, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another climate driver, can sometimes offset these effects. A positive IOD, characterised by warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean, often supports rainfall even during El Niño years. The IRI predicts a strongly positive IOD from September to December 2026, which may influence India's monsoon outcomes.